December 18, 2019

A pessimistic prediction for the future of robotics

There are two advanced robotics available, the Baxter robot from Rethink robotics company, and a self-driving car from different companies. Both systems are equipped with cutting edge software and they are able to fulfill certain tasks. The interesting fact is, that Baxter and self-driving cars have two sides which should be mentioned. On the first look, the project is amazing. In the case of the Baxter robot it's the first time, that an industrial robot can be programmed by everyone. The system is robust against errors and can be reprogrammed for different tasks. In contrast to other robots, Baxter is way more advanced.

Unfortunately, there is a less known part of the project. The rethink robotics company has went bankrupt last year because they were not able to sell the product to the market. And after watching some of the videos the reason why is obvious: the Baxter robot isn't solving practical tasks, but it's increases the complexity. That means, with the Baxter robot in the loop the costs will become higher and not cheaper. The same problem is there for self-driving cars. From a technical perspective, current autonomous cars are advanced. But they can't be used in reality.

The open question is why such a gap is there between the promise of the inventor and the reality. The problem has nothing to do with Artificial Intelligence itself, but it's located in the tasks which should be done by robots. In most cases, the promise is, that a robot can replace a human worker. For doing so, the robot needs the same capabilities as a human worker, and this is not the case. What self-driving cars and the Baxter robot have to offer is a computer program which is some sort of Narrow AI. It selves a certain task which was programmed before. This kind of capabilities is not enough to replace a human worker.

Some engineers will argue, that this is not a real problem, because current robotics is sold as a co-robot, which means, that the robot and the human are working together on the same problem. Exactly this is not available. A comparison between a) a single human and b) a human and a robot will show, that the single human is more efficient. He can do the same task in a lower amount of time.

Let us focus on the latest generation of autopilots which are available in some of luxuary cars. The surprising fact is, that if the human drivers activates the autopilot his workload will become higher, but not lower. That means, the autopilot isn't supporting the human but he puts the human under stress. The same is true for the Baxter robot. So the conclusion is, that Artificial Intelligence isn't a helpful tool but it's the opposite. Exactly of this reason, Rethink robotics has went into bankrupt.

Let us make a simple reality check. The amount of Youtube videos about the Baxter robot is amazing. Nearly all features are explained of how to use the machine. In contrast, not a single company is using the robot for practical applications. So the conclusion is, that Baxter is some kind of educational project but can't be utilized in reality. It seems, that the world has huge interest in explaining the Baxter robot to others, but there is nobody who is watching all these tutorials and use this knowledge. So the prediction is, that the knowledge is useless. It means, it's not possible to learn how to install a robot in a factory.

There is without a need for increased productivity in the econmy. But robots who are working are a dead end. If the idea is to increase the automation level, other options apart from Artificial Intelligence should be investigated first.