Microsoft Windows is known as the leading desktop operating system. It has a market share of around 90%. This ratio was stable over the last 20 years. Even if the Linux software has become more powerful and the Internet is widespread used, the only thing which seems certain is, that Microsoft is the leading software company in the world.
Perhaps it make sense to describe the current situation more objective and ask what Microsoft stands for. There are some elements available if somebody is using Microsoft products. At first the user will buy some books about Microsoft software. He has to buy 10-20 of them each is sold for 40 US$ in the hard cover version. For example from the oreilly publisher.
The second step is, that the user needs the software itself. Which includes the WIndows 10 operating system, the Office 365 suite, the visual studio suite, the SQL server, webserver and additional programs like Photoshop. The license fee for all these software cost a lot of money. It is more than 1000 US$ for all these programs combined.
The third step is very important. The typical Microsoft user has no experience with Linux based operating system. He is prefering Microsoft products because he doesn't like Open Source software in general, and isn't motivated to install Ubuntu or Arch Linux on his PC.
And now comes the question: Does this behavior makes any sort of sense? It's a behavior in which a user has to buy hardcover books, has to spend money for software licenses and isn't familiar with Open Source. It will produce only sense if the future is working with this principle too. But this future is not available in the reality. All of the behavior which results into a Microsoft centric software ecosystem is outdated.
It's true that according to the latest statistics the Microsoft desktop operating system has a market share of 90%, but the underlying behavior to replicate such a ratio isn't ready for the future. It's some kind of look back into the past of computing before electronic documents were invented and before Linux distribution were created.
The assumption is that the importance of Microsoft and the ecosystem around Microsoft is overestimated. That means, it has reached the peak and what we will see next is some kind longterm decline. The best example from the real world are printed newspaper. They are not able to produce sense, especially not for future needs. A while ago, Microsoft has increased the price for the Office 365. The reason why is unclear and especially a new generation of users are asking why the software isn't available as an app for only 2.99 US$. And they are asking what is wrong with Libreoffice if the software provides the same feature without any license fee. Such a question makes sense because Libreoffice and Microsoft Office has the same power. The only reason why MS-Office is used so often is because of historical reasons.
Perhaps it makes sense to go a step backward and see Microsoft as part of a more complex media evolution. What can be described on the long run is a transition from classical media like newspapers, radio, television and books towards modern media located in the internet. Similar to Microsoft the classical media didn't disappear they are all avalable for today's audience. The New york times is sold at the kiosk, the FM radio television is transmitted in the air, and most households have book shelf. But all these media have lost their sense making capabilities. It's not possible to explain to a newbie why these media are important anymore. There are modern media which are cheaper and more powerful. The switch from old media to modern media will take some years.
The logical consquence is about asking how many decades it will need if Microsoft has lost the position on the desktop and Linux has won the market. Will it take 10 years, 20 years or more? According to a report [1] the open source market will grow to a volume of 66 billion US$ in 2026. The attempt to predict the future sounds a bit like a forecast the development of the printed newspaper.
What is important is not to compare Linux with Microsoft on detail questions, for example to analyze if the ext4 filesystem is 10% faster than the NTFS filesystem but the problem should be analyzed from the perspective of media studies. That means by the ecosystem around the Windows 10 operating system and the ecosystem whic depends on the Linux kernel.
[1] https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/open-source-services-market/
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