In previous blog posts it was mentioned already that the year 1992 was equal to a breakthough. At the same time, a period has ended and a new one was starting. Let us take a look into a TV show from that time about a computer show.
On the first look the format looks familiar. The episode of computer chronicles looks similar to what was known from the 1980s episodes. But at the same time, it was something new and not known before. Because aroun the year 1992 the internet has started to become a mainstream phenomena. At the same time, the computer has become attractive for larger amount of people. In contrast to the 1980s the average user was not only interested in the subject but he bought a PC for it's own and was doing something with it. We can say that the year 1992 was some sort of inbetween. It was different than the decades ago and it was improving by the years after 1992.
Let us listen to the episode itself. At first the moderator asks his quest what is new and amazing in this comdex fair. The answer was that lots of multimedia technology is available. The second point mentioned was, that mobility and notebook computers have become important. And the guest was right. In the year 1992 the computer has become a central hub for entertainment. In contrast to the situation in the 1980s the price was much lower and the hardware had a bigger capacity.
What was shown on the comdex as an example for multimedia, was the video for windows software in combination with CD-ROM drives. The interesting situation is, that at the same comdex show alternatives over the Windows operating system was presented by Apple. And this technology works the same way. So we can say that not a single technology was available but all the products from the year 1992 was fulfilling the requirements.
It should be mentioned that a lot of technology has become obsolete in 1992. For sure, the Commodore 64 was outdated, and the 16bit Amiga 500 too. Also, text terminals used for mainframe copmputers were outdated.
___Longer periods___
It is possible to split the computer history into two periods:
1. from 1962-1992 (30 years)
2. from 1992-2022 (30 years)
The year 1992 is the border between the periods. The first period can be described as old school computing. Computers were available the first time, they were slow, expensive and reserved for a small amount of engineers and scientists. In contrast, the second period introduced the computer as a mass product which has become cheap, powerful and suitable for all sorts of tasks. The interesting point is, that since the year 1992 the products from the first period have become out of fashion. Nobody was interested anymore in 8bit homecomputers, gaming systems which were equipped with 1 kb of ram. Also it has become unpopular to pay millions of US$ in exchange for tape drives which can store a few amount of megabytes.
Today it is the year 2021 and since 1992 not much has changed. The second period is up and running and the improvements are taking place only on a minor scale. All the technology available in 1992 is available today as well. The only improvement was that former 32bit cpu were replaced by 64bit cpus and that the software has improved in minor parts. But the general idea was available in 1992 as well. Major milestones like Windows operating systems, unix as a server system, 3d graphics for video gameing and mobile computer hardware was available in 1992.
If the duration of 30 years is typical duration for a longer period in computing the question is what will happen in the third period which goes form 2022-2052? The answer is not very complicated. The AI Revolution is something which is located at the horizon and it something which will revolutionize future computing drastically. There is a similarity to previous periods. In general AI and robots are available already. They were developed by large companies. The difference is, that these technology isn't available as a consumer product and that the capabilities are low. Perhaps this will change within the next 30 years?
___References___
[1] The Computer Chronicles - Comdex Fall 1992 (1992) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evMilwVBHAQ