The first idea in the debate about the future of libraries might be to declare public libraries as obsolete because Google can deliver much more content then outdated conventional libraries. From the first perspective this is true, but this argument will be not recognized as a valid contribution from the library itself. So there are major doubts, that the idea of “libraries are obsolete” will convince a huge amount of people, especially if we are mention that the number of visitors the classical library has isn't so bad, as it seems.
The better approach to discuss the future of library is a bit tricky. It is called privatization, and this time the idea is welcomed by everyone. The libraries itself see privatisation as the next logical steps, the public asks for the same thing, and potential competitor of libraries like Google are also fans of this idea. The concept itself is easy. Instead of reducing the tax money to the library, instead of closing library and make all digital we let all untouched and change only the legal structure of today's public library. They are no longer part of the government or the church, but will be converted into a stockmarket listed company. What the library are doing with their new role is up to themself. They can ask their customers for money, they can ask the government for money. It is natural that the government will spend a lot of taxpayer money into the new listed library company, because of it's traditional strong relationship. The new thing is, that from now on both are separated. That means, libraries have to compete in a market like a telecom company or like Walmart.
In my opinion there is a market for borrowing printed books, The problem in the past was, that public libraries have killed this market and no other company was able to earn money in that market. This has to be changed. I don't think that Europe or Asia will make the first step in this direction. No the mother in capitalism is the United states, and here is the right place for library privatization. If this works, other countries will follow.
I don't think that it is realistic to think about a disappearing library. Books, DVDs and a place to read them will be needed at least for the next 50 years. So long will it takes, that the Internet is fully accepted. On the other hand it makes no sense, to see a library as part of the government or the church. It is more like a business like a bakery or a restaurant. And most employees of libraries see themself also as employess and not as something else. A library has customers, gets money, and provides services. So it is logical to formalize this behavior with the correct legal status.
Todays comparison between Google and libraries isn't fair. Google is a stockmarket company and deals with electronic information, while the library is not a company and is about printed books. To get the challenge fair it is important to let fight one company against another company. To compare a library company with a search engine company. A possible metric is the return on investment, the number of employees and so on.
Libraries are a commercial book borrowing service
Some outlooks into the libraries future are recognizing that the internet is there and that the libraries need to find an answer. What they doesn't aware of it is, that other market players are already there which have created business around distribution of information. Sometimes the battle is shortened to libraries vs google, but in reality the battle is between Nasdaq-100 vs libraries. Let us take a look into some coperations listed at the tech oriented stockexchange:
- Activision (computergames)
- Adobe (PDF format)
- Alphabet (Google)
- Amazon.com (books)
- Apple (ipad)
- Baidu (search engine)
- Cisco (router)
- comcast (fiber optic cable)
- Intel (CPUs)
- Microsoft (operating system)
- netflix (videos)
- paypal (paying service)
- t-mobile (telephone provider)
What does have all these companies to do with libraries? Very much, because they are providing the infrastructure for getting access to printed books, electronic books, films, computergames and so on. They are providing hardware devices like PC and smartphones, they are proving telephone cables and they are writing software. It is not only a battle between google vs. libraries, that war is much broader. Are traditional libraries able to compete with the Nasdaq-100 list? Can they provide better information, and give better advice to the customers then all the companies on the list? The answer is simple: nope. The interesting fact is, that the libraries itself didn't understand this. They think, that libraries have a future because their history goes over 500 years back. They can simply not imagine, what the internet is.
The interesting information is, that libraries not only will disappear. Because the demand for information, books and movies will raise in the future, and also the demand for manual advice, structure and a place for talking about it. But, all the workforce will no longer be active within the classical library, but within one of the NASDAQ-100 companies. I would guess, that even in 20 years there will be a market for printed books.. But all the infrastructure around this won't be handled by libraries but by suppliers like Amazon, paypal and Microsoft. These companies are not digital under any circumstances, they will process printed books, but the business workflow will bypass the library, that means apart from Nasdaq-100 companies there will be no need for extra service providers.
Sometimes the internet is described as a virtual space. But in reality it is the combination of the employees and the customers of the Nasdaq-100 companies. Google for example, has 1 billion customers who are visiting every day the search engine, and Intel has lots of engineering how are developing new microprocessors. But what is the role of libraries? What service they have to offer? Right, they have nothing to offer, and they have no customers. The only thing what libraries provide today is a broken story about their future role which isn't realistic and should mainly protect the library themself against all the people who know it better how to provide information, media, entertainment and education. The libraries sees themself as a protection against the evil google company. That is nonsense. Google never had a monopol in information distribution, it is only one company in the NASDAQ-100 list and competes with all the others. The libraries are the danger for society, because they acquire too much money and provide no values.
Today's library are very equal to a religions institution. They are not listed at the stockexchange but earn a huge amount of money. They own lots of building and have a huge amount of workers, but they are obsolete for the society. The only reason why libraries exists today is because they were important in the past and spread fear that something evil will happen, if they get lost.
Ending the customer relationship with one of the NASDAQ-100 companies is easy. All what the customer has to do sending a letter to Apple and explain that from now on, he will no longer use Apple iMac devices but HP workstation because they costs less. From now on the relationship between Apple and the customer is over. But how can we end the relationship with the library-industrial-complex? Sending a letter to the library that we do not need their service doesn't help. Because the libraries doesn't see themself as a company who offers a service for money, but the library think they are part of the society and they are open for everyone. That means, from a technical point it is not possible to quit the relationship. The library owns the people for lifelong like the catholic church.
My prediction is, that the libraries will have a future, because of this lifelong membership. The customers are not in the position to end the library account, nor they are able to reduce the amount of tax-money they have to spend to the library-complex. At first, most don't care, but in 10 years this will become a major problem. Going bancrupt for a NASDAQ-100 company is part the business. Adobe knows, that in one day, their lifespan is over, because something was invented which is better then the PDF format. But the library has no exist strategy. There is simply no exit button for the library, they are created for eternity in mind. And this is dangerous if the underlying idea (printed books) becomes outdated.
The first important step is to talk about library privatization. That means, to separate between library and the church, between libraries and the government. That means, future libraries have to become financial independent from church and government as a huge institution financed by it's own. And then, it will become much easier to talk about adjustments and shrinking.
As far as i know, no country worldwide has made this step. In all nations, libraries are from a legal perspective part of the government and the church. They are managed like a public university which means, they don't have customers. The first step would be, to make users of the library a customer. That means, that people who are visiting the library have to pay for it. And only the users but nobody else.