In the economic literature there is a mystery available called the productivity paradox. It's about a mismatch between computer technology which is available everywhere and low productivity rates in the office and in the service industry. It make sense to describe the paradox in detail.
The first important fact is, that the productivity paradox has to do with the transition from the forth to the fifth computer generation. The forth generation was from 1970-1980, while the fifth computer generation started after the year 1980. During the forth generation no productivity paradox was visible. In that time lots of innovation were made which are used for practical applications, for example the barcode reader which revolutionized the supermarket, the CNC machine which allows to increase the productivity in the factory and the electronic pocket calculator which makes office number crunching more easily.
In the early 1980s the first books were published about a potential future, in which robots and artificial Intelligence is used to increase the productivity further. The idea was that robots can improve factory automation and help the service industry to reduce the costs. This vision was never realized. In contrast to the technology from the 1970s, the next technology step since the 1980s was never introduced in the reality. The mismatch has resulted into the productivity paradox. It's situation in which high speed computer, advanced robots and modern expert systems are available in theory, but the technology can be used for practical application.
To explain this situation better we have to go back to the golden 1970s. The situation was, that technology invented in that time was useful for practical tasks. The CNC machine is a good example. In the 1970s the technology was new and it helped to improve the factory. A CNC machine is superior to technology used before. Superior means, that the company can reduce the costs and the employees are motivated in using it. The surprising fact is, that the 1970s was the last decade in which innovation took place. Modern factories in the year 2019 are using the same technology available in the 1970s which is a combination of barcode reader, mainframe computer, CNC machines, and telephone communication.
On the first look, the companies have a need for introducing more modern technology, namely robotics and Artificial Intelligence. It's important to know, that the companies have tried so in the past, since the 1980s many projects were started with the attempt to introduce advanced robots in the factory automation. All of these projects have failed. In contrast to CNC machines a robot has no advantage.
The productivity paradoxon and the missing fifth computer generation is the same problem. Both can be dated back to the early 1980s. It has to do with the absense of innovation after the 1970s were over. Or to explain it from the other perspective, the automation technology has freezed since 40 years. State of art factory automation is the same like in the mid 1970s. To understand the issue in detail we have to describe what the term fifth computer generation is about.
In the beginning it was a vision about future computer technology. The idea was, to develop robots which can help to increase the productivity. This plan was never realized. Not because of the technology itself, but because the robot prototypes can't be used in real applications. What is possible with today's robots is to use them in synthetic benchmarks, for example the Robocup challenge. In such a task the robot is able to play soccer in a team. The problem is, that the robot in the challenge can't be used for a task in the real world. The robot technology is locked into the synthetic challenge. From an academic perspective such robot competitions have become very successful. The early micromouse challenge evolved into more modern challenges in which the teams have build robots which are walking like humans on two legs. Today's robots are more advanced then their counterparts 30 years ago and they are able to master more complicated challenge. Importunately, the gap between a synthetic challenge and a real project is larger than ever. All the robot shown in youtube videos are nothing but show robots. They are working as a prototype in a fictional challenge and the technology can't be used for increasing the productivity in a real application.
That is the major difference to technology within the forth computer generation. Innovations like the barcode reader and the CNC machine can be utilized for real tasks. It seems, that Fifth generation computers in general are struggling with the reality. What can be seen is, that fifth generation robot projects have a tendency to flip the social roles. The machine isn't a tool which helps the human but it's the other way around. The team of human programmers has to invest lots of hours until the robot is able to participate in the robocup challenge. That means, the robot won't provide work, but it wastes human energy. The question is, what is the purpose of robocup like challenges? The main idea is to tell a story about future society. According to the Robocup challenge, robots will become successful in under 10 years and will help human employees. THat is in short the plot which is told by the participents of robot challenges. They are programming the robots and creating the videos to support their story about fifth generation computer. It's an optimistic outlook into the future which should inspire more users to participate in the movement.
It's important to know that this kind of vision isn't realistic. Robots can't be build, and they won't help human workers in the factories. Projects in the past which are trying to realize such projects in factories have shown the opposite. it seems, that every failed robot project has increased the need to tell an optimistic vision about future robotics.
Let us go a step back and describe the situation from an economy perspective. Suppose a companies is interested in increasing the productivity in a factory. Which kind of technology supports this attempt? The only technology which works was invented in the 1970s. Everything what was invented later won't increase the productivity but it will reduce it. That means, if the company buys some of the machines invented in the 1970s the factory will run on the maximum productivity level. It's not possible to increase it further.
Perhaps it make sense to define the difference between CNC machines and robots briefly. On the first look, there is no difference, because on timeline the CNC technology was invented in the 1970s and the robots were build in the 1980s. But CNC machines can be used for practical applications, while robots not. CNC machines are part of the forth computer generation while robots are part of the fifth generation computer. Between both there is a large gap. It's important to become aware of the gap, because it helps to explain the productivity paradox.
The major problem of CNC machines is, that they can automate some tasks in a factory but not everything. A CNC machine will only work together with humans in the loop. Most factories are using CNC machines at the assembly line and for automated welding. And from the cost perspective, it's a here to stay. The problem is, that no technology is available which can automate the factory more. The human workers can't be replaced by robots but they are working together with CNC machines. This problem can't be solved by explaining to the factory what a robot is, they know it from failed projects from the past.
Understanding the needs of a factory
Instead of asking how robots can help to automate a factory, the more elaborate question is what kind of technology a factory needs. Modern companies have a demand for barcode readers, CNC machine and other technology invented in the 1970s. They are using these tools to reduce their costs and increase the output. In contrast, technology which was developed in the fifth generation computer revolution namely robots, Artificial Intelligence and neural networks doesn't fulfill the needs of a modern factory. It's not possible to use them to increase the productivity, but they are developed for it's own purpose. The main reason why robotics has become popular since the 1980s is because the AI programmers have a need for it. They are using robot problems as a vehicle to talk about artificial Intelligence. The fifth generation computer is mostly an academic discipline which isn't solving problems but is creating a new sandbox.
None of the newly developed robots will be introduced in the mainstream market as a product. A robot can't be sold to customers, because the customer won't profit from it. What a customer likes to buy in exchange for money is a modern CNC welding machine, because such machine provides added value. In contrast a robot from the latest generation doesn't provide something in return. It's a loose-loose situation.
From an economic perspective there are two sorts of robotics company on the market. The first one are selling CNC machines under the label robots. Notable example are the Fanuc, ABB and the Kuka company. These companies are successful in the business not because their robots are great, but because their CNC machine are working reliable and are the same like in the 1970s. The second sort of robot companies are real innovators. For example, Rethink robotics, Jibo and Willow Garage have produced robots which are fitting great into the fifth generation computer revolution. What the companies have in common is that they are bankrupt or will become so within 2 years. The reason is, that the product they are selling have no added value to the customer. The only place in which a Baxter robot from Rethink robotics make sense is a academic robot challenge. The funny thing is, that especially the Baxter model was a success and a failure at the same time. It was successful because many papers were written about the model with an academic background, and it was a failure, because the robot can't be used for real applications.
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