Debian 5 lenny was released in 2009, which was 10 years ago. A short look into a screenshot will show that the Linux desktop looks very similar to a current desktop. Instead of ext4 the former filesystem was ext3 which was working great too. So what exactly is the difference between Debian 5 and Debian 10? It's the same operating system, only minor improvements and security issues were fixed. Apart from the security topic, the average user can work with Debian 5 lenny very well. He won't miss anything. All the programs like webserver, gimp, webbrowser and OpenOffice were available 10 years ago.
The good news is, that most LInux user have updated their system because it costs nothing. So there is no problem with outdated Debian 5 workstations who are vulnerable for security issues. The problem is, since the last 10 years no improvement is visible. That former story of highly innovative software development is broken.
To understand what is different we have to take a look into the past. A computer in the year 1980 looks very different from a computer in the year 1990. In the year 1980 no software was available and textual interfaces were the only choice for the user. While ten years later a large amount of software plus graphical user interfaces were the standard. I would go a step further and compare the year 1990 with the year 2000. The difference he was that the price was lower. A typical computer in the year 1990 costs a large amount of money. The price for the average workstation was similar to buying a car. While in the year 2000 the same computer system was sold in mainstream computer stores for low amount of money. That means, the customer has seen a large improvement and the story of a highly innovative computing industry was valid.
This plot is broken since 2010. It was no longer possible to provide an added value for the customer. Today's computer are looking the same, and cost the same like computers ten years ago. The improvements are nearly invisible. And in most cases, the consumers are rejecting the improvements at all. One example is the introduction of 3d desktops which is possible with today's computer but all the customers are prefering normal 2d desktops because they run faster.
So the question is, what are the future plans of the PC industry? Are any improvements plans which makes the computer in ten years from now an highly advanced system? No such things are available. The PC industry which includes hardware and software companies are done. They have made their homework and the market is saturated. That means, the PC industry has built over night in the 1980s the market and now the situation is relaxed. Innovation means, that something is different from the past, and this is no longer the case.
PC companies are similar to the car industry an old buisiness. They have developed their workflows, they are producing a high quality and they have no need to reinvent themself.
The last big attempt of the PC industry to develop a new product was the iphone from Apple. The idea was to provide to the customer something which is new and which makes sense for him. The first iphone was released in 2007, which was 13 years ago. Since then the PC industry has failed to develop any new kind of products. The problem is, that technology can be invented only once. If somebody has programmed an operating system and manufactored a cpu already, it's not possible to promote this technology as something which is new and exciting.
The question is what will comes next after the PC industry? The first thing what is needed is the self-description of software companies that they are done. The products they are developing are known and they are products are very similar to what was available 10 years ago. In some niches like the programming language C/C++ the software is the same since 30 years. That means, the first C++ compiler was invented in the mid 1980s and since then the C++ language was used. Pretending that the next iteration of the C++ compiler will revolutionize the PC industry makes no sense.
Instead of describing the situation too negative. It make sense to see the positive sides. The PC industry has developed affordable computer technology for the masses. The internet has replaced former television and radio networks and the normal user is invited to become owner of his own youtube channel online. Thanks to search engines he has access to more information than in the past and a modern PC needs less energy than a light bulb. It's not the fault of the PC industry that they have done everything right. The problem is, that the world is different than in the 1980s. There is no need to program software or invent a 32bit cpu. Because these tasks are solved already.
Let us describe a well known phenomena. A user in the year 2020 comes to the conclusion, that he likes to reinvent the PC industry. He is programming his own operating system and build in the fpga device his own CPU. The result is software and hardware which is not new but is repeating the tasks from the past. If the user has made everything right, he has invented his own 16bit cpu whicn can run his own MS-DOS operating system. This is not the future, but it's learning from the past. It's similar to playing a game, if user is already familar with the game. He knows what is needed to solve the puzzle.
The interesting point is, that larger parts of amateur tech-enthusiasts are operating under this mode. 90% of the questions on Stackoverflow are about issues which were solved already. The users are solving problems from the past because they want to feel good. What the users are not doing is to solve more complicated tasks which are not researched very well. The reason is, that complicated tasks are resulting into failure and this is equal to frustration. Frustration is something which holds programmer down and it doesn't fit to their self-awareness of a competent programmer.
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